[PrayingMantis]

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But thats not what happened here. In this case, MP is putting in 850 to win 2525. This is less than the 4.1 : 1 odds dictated by his flush draw. So he is getting insufficient odds to call this bet.

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This is not accurate. From his point of view, he did have about the right odds to call, unless he puts me specifically on AA, (or better than pair, which is not very reasonable with this board). If I hold any over-pair (99-KK) he's getting quite the right odds, not to mention the option I'm bluffing with Ax - in that case he gets even good odds.

So from his point of view - he is, probably, getting the odds.

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For him to call the bet is a mistake, and for him to fold is correct play. You profit when your opponent makes mistakes, and fail to profit when your opponent plays correctly. So by Sklansky's fundamental theorem of poker, you should want him to call here.


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Again, this is not quite accurate. As I showed in the original post: with the hand he *actually* holds, I prefer he *wouldn't* call me, as it will increases my risk dramamtically without increasing enough CEV. If it was ring game, then the fundamental theorem would kick in, and I *would* want him to make the mistake of calling, since $EV is all that matters.

There are tournament situations, in which your opponent might make a mistake (FTOP-wise), but you prefer he woudn't do it, because it will put you in greater risk than if he did the "right" thing (objectively speaking, knowing what we both hold) , i.e., folding here.