[Jonathan]

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After this little bad-beat, I had some thoughts about EV and risk, and got to some interesting conclusions.

The hand:

22$ 2-tables, blinds 25/50. I'm UTG w/1400, holding A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], I raise to 150. MP (5000) calls, BB (2200) calls too.

Flop: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (pot: 475)

BB checks, I bet 400, MP calls, BB calls.

Turn: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (pot: 1675)

BB checks, I push for 850, MP calls with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. BB folds.

River: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

We usually say after such beats, things like "you want him to call you, this is great for you, etc.". While this is of course true in a sense, I figured that if you consider it strictly in EV vs. Risk terms, you *don't* want him to call here with his hand.

Calculation:

My CEV for him calling: (0.8*2525)-(0.2*850) = +1850, with 20% risk of busting .

My CEV for him folding: +1675, with 0% risk of busting .

So, I gain only 175 chips more, for this 20% risk of going bust.

I would much rather he *wouldn't* call me here.

All this may not have clear practical side, since I will push here every time. However, I certainly feel different now about "what I want my opponent to do".

Any thoughts?

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Of course when you are up against the chip leader, sometimes your max bet isn't enough to force him out of calling because of the odds he's getting. That's what happened here. But your assessment of EV and risk is correct. Hopefully, the probability of him folding is great enough that it makes it worth it.

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But thats not what happened here. In this case, MP is putting in 850 to win 2525. This is less than the 4.1 : 1 odds dictated by his flush draw. So he is getting insufficient odds to call this bet.

For him to call the bet is a mistake, and for him to fold is correct play. You profit when your opponent makes mistakes, and fail to profit when your opponent plays correctly. So by Sklansky's fundamental theorem of poker, you should want him to call here.

Of course, if a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is coming off the deck, then thats another matter [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Regards,
Jonathan