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Old 08-28-2001, 11:16 AM
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Default toss\'em



I wouldn't hesitate to fold in this situation. There are too many ways you could be beaten on the flop, and you have to go runner-runner to win if someone has a 5. You would have to catch two tens or two Kings for a full house (which isn't the nut full, since someone could have T9 or, less likely, K9.) Three of each rank left in the deck (even though someone had a T, you don't know that right now) and you have to hit twice...3/47 x 2/46 = 6/2162, or roughly 360:1 against. And you would have to split the pot with a single K or T. Not winning poker as I see it.


You could also get Q J for the straight, but that's no guarantee on the pot with those two 5's out there. Your odds for that are slightly better, but almost as ridiculous as filling up. Don't be too frustrated that you folded what would have been the winner...your fold is correct. Next time you get that situation, toss'em again. Bluffing into a field of loose players, especially at low-low limits, is a losing proposition. Someone's going to call you for the price of a Coke (and it may be three bets when it comes back to you.)


If the flop wasn't paired (say it came down 9 5 4,) a call would still be questionable, IMO. If you do hit the K, your kicker isn't as good as someone who's also trying to catch with KJ or KQ. If you hit the ten, it may be no good if someone's playing T9 (and someone was in this hand.) If you were suited, and there was one card of your suit out there, the additional backdoor flush out may change a fold to a call, but only if you have the A or K. If you have AK overcards in this situation, you would rather see the K come than the A...a lot of LL players will play Ax and the A could give them two pair.


I'm glad you had KTo in the big blind...I hate playing this hand, especially against decent players.
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