Re: Induce a bluff or take the pot down now??
Given your assumptions, you should raise the turn.
Villain will improve to the best hand 6/44 of the time.
If you pick up the pot now, you are gaining 5.16BB. However, if you wait until the river, you will still have the best hand 38/44 of the time, at which point you will win 6.16BB, but when Villain improves, you will have cost yourself an additional 2 BB.
Therefore, either take 5.16BB now, or wait to get:
(38/44)6.16BB-(6/44)2BB = 5.05BB.
Therefore, you should raise right now to maximize your EV.
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