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Old 11-23-2004, 11:04 AM
Scuba Chuck Scuba Chuck is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
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Default US Dollar? Maroon dude vs. Warren Buffett

If anyone has any serious interest in understanding where the dollar is going, spend some time studying the current account deficit.

The current account deficit is -5.7% of GDP. An All time high. The previous all time high was -5.0%. That was in 1929. The next high is -3.4%. That was in 1987. The dollar saw significant declines following those periods, besides the obvious stock market implications.

How far has the dollar fallen before? Well during the 1970's, the dollar lost over 70% of its value. With the likely coming oil shocks, I would consider the dollar depreciation a 90% likely probability over a 2-4 year time period. Next 6 months - who knows.

Is my money where my mouth is? Hell yeah.
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