Are the sets worth it?
Hi all.
3 situations, that happened recently, made me think.
1. I lost with 33 to 99, on a 2-3-9 flop. (and went out of SNG.)
2. I lost with 44 to 77, on a 4-7-7-x-x board. (Went out)
3. Won a very small pot with TT on a 3-7-T-Q-8 board.
The first two are examples of spots, where I was pretty sure I'm way ahead, and then I realized I'm way behind. The third is an example of a flopped set, that brought home almost nothing.
There's a concept, regarding SNG's, that advocates limping with PP's on early rounds, when the blinds are low and the stacks deep. Why do you do it? to try and spike a set, or get out cheaply. Most of the time (a little less than 90%) you get nothing, and lose 1BB. But here, well, as you see, I made it with 33, and with 44 (low FH), and lost with both much more than I wanted to, while with the tripe T I got nothing.
Conclusion: it might be that the danger in flopping a 2nd or 3rd set, or even a low FH, and the no-value (sometimes) of floping a nut-set with TT, makes limping with pairs, surely below 88-77, not very profitable, and even -EV? what do you think?
I know this is a very small sample, but my thoughts are more theoretical...(I hope).
BTW, I know I didn't put full hand histories here, but let's assume I played all three hands perfectly after the flop. In other words: assume somebody else played them... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
PrayingMantis
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