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Old 11-14-2004, 04:13 AM
uuDevil uuDevil is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Remembering P. Tillman
Posts: 246
Default Re: Question about Winrate

[ QUOTE ]
How much is large enough sample size to draw a conclusion on if you are or aren't a winning player at a certain limit (on let's say 97% certainty).

Is it 50k+ hands, 100k+ hands?


[/ QUOTE ]

Whether or not you are a winning player depends on WR, SD, and N (#hands). Calculate the quantity

WR/(SD/sqrt(N))

This is the distance from breakeven in # of SD. For >= 97% confidence, this quantity >= 2.17.

[ QUOTE ]

I currently have 29,138 hands of $2/4, BB/100 of 3.52, SD/100 of 15.2394.

I'm pretty certain I'm a winner, since I've been playing and winning for quite a long time. Those are just since I recently started logging with PT.

But so, how much is enough when speaking of sample size?



[/ QUOTE ]

It's relative, but 3.52/(15.2/sqrt(291))=3.95 so you can be better than 99.9% confident you are a winning player.
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