Re: Question about Winrate
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How much is large enough sample size to draw a conclusion on if you are or aren't a winning player at a certain limit (on let's say 97% certainty).
Is it 50k+ hands, 100k+ hands?
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Whether or not you are a winning player depends on WR, SD, and N (#hands). Calculate the quantity
WR/(SD/sqrt(N))
This is the distance from breakeven in # of SD. For >= 97% confidence, this quantity >= 2.17.
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I currently have 29,138 hands of $2/4, BB/100 of 3.52, SD/100 of 15.2394.
I'm pretty certain I'm a winner, since I've been playing and winning for quite a long time. Those are just since I recently started logging with PT.
But so, how much is enough when speaking of sample size?
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It's relative, but 3.52/(15.2/sqrt(291))=3.95 so you can be better than 99.9% confident you are a winning player.
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