Re: Question about Winrate
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ah cool. So say I know my current winrate after a small sample size of hands and my standard deviation. How can I find out the range of my true winrate?
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pzhon showed the idea above.
The interval
WR +/- 2*SE
will include your true win rate with 95.4% confidence, where SE= SD/sqrt(N), SD and WR are in BB/100, and N= #hands (in hundreds)
The factor 2 can be varied depending on the desired confidence:
1 -> 68% confidence
1.96 -> 95% confidence
3 -> 99.7% confidence
The greater the desired confidence, the wider the interval.
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