Re: 30+ buyins, mathematical explanation required
aight, heres what i have so far:
for the 19% ROI player at the $22's (15/12/10 finish distribution)
the chance he'll go broke with a bankroll B over a random sample of N STTs is as follows (not entirely perfect probably, but fairly accurate)
B $440 $660 $1100
N________________________________
20 <.0001 na na
30 .0008 <.0001 na
50 .003 <.0001 <.0001
100 .011 .002 <.0001
500 .001 .0005 <.0001
1000 <.0001 <.0001 <.0001
of course, the $440 corresponds to 20 buyins, $660 to 30, and $1100 to 50. I'm not sure about the math though... it seems to say that theres no more than about a 1.2% chance of ruin, even with only 20 buyins...
meh, its late.
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