[Wildbill]

I don't think your jobs assessment is true anymore, many experts and economists are starting to question the labor numbers anyways. The unemployment rate went down despite this sense that more people are back looking than before, a sign that the payrolls surveys may indeed be undercounting. A lot of research was done for the last recession and it indicated that the payroll survey vastly undercounted the jobs because it didn't capture a lot of self-employed and very small business hiring, things that tend to grow fastest at this very juncture. A lot of economists were thinking 150k jobs added and either still a 6.0 rate or even a bump up as a lot of discouraged are presumably looking again. Instead it came in at 53k and yet the rate went down slightly, definitely a sign that the research may be correct.

I do think it is getting a bit bullish out there, but that is the nature of the market. When it is clear improved news is coming the market always bids it up early. I don't think they have gone too far in a macro sense if you leave out the speculative tech stuff, I still don't understand the exuberance there, but in terms of a situation where you get companies growing profits at about 10% without hardly any revenue gains, now you get a chance to boost revenue gains in with likely continued productivity (maybe at a slower rate). I think earnings could easily grow 20-25% annual pace in the next 6-9 months, there really isn't anything to slow down the economy until then. I think that kind of growth and the resurgence of the market will also put a floor under the currency moves, that while they will continue to drift down, the undeniable strength of the US market will prevent it from becoming a rout.

I do agree the market has come a long way and might be due for a breather, but I don't see much chance of a significant correction barring a very unforseen event. And also don't forget as much as everyone is talking exuberance, the market would have to be ahead of what it was at the height of the bubble to once again be a similar bubble to before. Despite all the doom and gloom and all that has happened since early 2000, the economy has grown by about 8% since then so by proxy the valuation of the market as a whole would have to be approximately 8% more than it was at it's peak.