Re: Home game question.
First, even if there were no redraws, your 17 outs twice would only hit 1-(28/45)(27/44) = 61.8% of the time. I wouldn't call that a huge favorite.
Second, that your opponent has the ace of clubs makes a significant difference, leaving you a 56.8:43.2 favorite rather than 59.5:40.5 if your opponent had AKo with no club. That might not look like a lot, but it takes 30% off your advantage.
The redraws are significant. Although you have 17 outs, the 8 flush outs give your opponent 6-7 outs to a higher flush. The 6 straight outs give your opponent 3 outs (the 3s) to tie. If a queen comes, your opponent has 5 outs to win with a king or 3.
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