Re: How your hole cards affect the flush chances in Omaha.
Ok, try and look at the problem in two different ways.
Looking at the whole 52 card deck the probabilities that i have a flush on the river are undisputed:
2 clubs, P(flush) = 0,071577243
3 clubs, P(flush) = 0,05407451
4 clubs, P(flush) = 0,039294424
This is must certinaly the correct solution.
BUT
What if i describe the problem like this:
You remove the top 40 cards from the deck.
Isnt it correct too say that both piles of 12 and 40 cards will each have a discrete probability distribution of suits?
I then choose 4 cards from the 40. How can the suits of these 4 cards change the probability distribution of the suits of the other pile with 12 cards (that will make the flop/turn/river).
Can you see my thought process now?
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