Re: how likely am i to hit the flop?
Your post is not very specific. I am going to assume you are not including straights. Lets assume you have AK the following is the probability that the flop comes with one (A or K), an A and K, two (A or K), full house with A/k or four of a kind.
You have 50 unseen cards 3 A, 3 K, and 44 other cards. The probability that you hit one or more of your AK cards is 1 minus the probability that you hit non.
= 1 - (44c3)/(50c3) = 32.42%
A rule of thumb for the flop when you are wondering what the probabilities of hitting one or more of your outs is 5.5% * outs. Most of the numbers derived by the above formula are good to within 1%.
Ex 1. You have A 7 the probability of you hitting your ace is 3*5.5=16.5%. This is the same for the seven. the brobability of A or 7 or both is 6*5.5 = 33%.
Ex 2. You have KQ you are wondering the probability the flop will have an Ace. 4 outs * 5.5% = 22%
Cobra
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