I play in the Tennessee Poker League. It's just a for-fun deal, playing for points based on how you finish in the ten-seat sng's. There's no money to be made, but I like it for one reason: most people take it seriously. I get to try out different styles and strategies against live players who don't want to lose. So, though there's no real money on the line, imagine this hand taking place against players of the mindset in a one-table sattelite.

9-handed. The relevant stacks (we are the big stacks):

Hero (SB) - 5.2K
Villian (MP) - 6K

Stacks start at 3500, rounds of 20 minutes. Ten minutes in, blinds are 100/200. No read on the Villian. I had just busted a player with an isolation play: he raised all-in for 1500 on the button with one limper, I re-raised all-in from the BB with K9o. I consider that a standard move, but some guy made a "loose-cannon" comment and the table muttered in agreement. I wish I were playing these guys for cash... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

In the hand in question, I had J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the SB. Six limpers to me, the Villian (MP) and five small stacks (2500 or less). I call for 100 more, BB checks.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] - OESD, backdoor-flush and an overcard.

I think about betting, but after the previous hand someone just might call me if they connected with the flop in anyway so I just check. It's checked to the Villian who bets 800, half the pot. Folded to me... and I go all in.

I gave this scenerio to a friend of mine later that night and he called me names. "You idiot, he limped, he could have ANYTHING! He's not going to fold top pair or higher. Just call and try to scare him off if you improve on the turn. You're not going to win enough times when he calls to make it profitable."

Here's my line for pushing all-in:

What does the bet represent? He limped as the chip leader, so I doubt he has an overpair (MAYBE eights, but that's a stretch... I have to assume normal play with no read, and normal play (I would assume) dictates at least raising with eights or higher as the big stack). The most likely candidate is top pair - K7o and its ilk. Given his stack, middle or bottom pair is also a distinct possible holding as an effort to buy the pot. Trips is possible. Also, he could have something like KJs and is making a weak semi-bluff (not AK, AQ or KQ, since there would have been a raise).

On down the list of possible holdings, there's two pair. Fives-up seems possible, sevens-up less so (would YOU call w/ 75s in this kind of format?). A six gives him an OESD; he might've bet with it but someone calling would present him with a tough decision on the later streets, so I'd list that as "not likely". Finally, there's a remote chance he has a made straight. 86s or 63s are pretty dubious calls, though, even for a large stack in early position.

Finally, I really can't discount the chance that he is just trying to make a half-assed play for the pot with nothing, counting on no one wanting to mess with being eliminated over a pretty flaccid flop.

So, what's my odds against each holding? CardPlayer Odds Generator

Top pair - 43%
Overpair - 43%... except 88, which is 35%, so we'll pessemistically average it to 40%
Two pair - 32%
Trips - 26%
6 with A, K or Q kicker - 30%
6 with J, T or 9 kicker - avg. 70%
Straight - avg. 15% (11% for 86s and 18% for 63s)
Bluff - avg. 50% (KJ and lower)

Now, how likely are the holdings? I can't really be anything but intellegently subjective. I'll add in the rounded EV amount to win with each (I'll win $11.8K):

TP - 25% = $5100
OP - 15% = $4750
2P - 5% = $3800
TR - 15% = $3100
6 w/ AKQ - 15% = $3500
6 w/ JT9 - 15% = $8300
ST - 5% = $1800
BF - 5% = $5900

Average this all out and we get: $4800!

Okay, so it's looking -EV. But I haven't calculated the number of times he will FOLD to an all-in bet with a number of these holding. I think that if he even folds 20% of the time with just top pair, I will pull enough money into that average EV pool to make it a money-making play. Throw in a small percentage for overpairs and two pair, and it's my belief that I come out on top. The big question is whether or not he will call me because of the table's perception of me as a loose player. If my earlier isolation move is considered "loose" by these people, I might have a tough time getting enough folds to make it a profitable play.

Overall, I think this was a good move. I'm either the monster chip leader early on or I'm gone; the odds seem about break-even, but it's better IMO to take that risk rather than wallow in the middle of the pack with the blinds on your heels.

Did I mess up somewhere here? Is my friend correct for calling me a moron? [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]