Re: Probability Of Making A Hand By The River
Heres a very simple rule of thumb for approximating the probability you will hit your outs by the river from the flop. Use the 4x rule.
I found the real probability of getting the necessary outs by the river by the finding the complement of not hitting.
6outs would be 1 - (41/47)(40/46) = 24.1%
8outs would be 1 - (39/47)(38/46) = 31.5%
9outs would be 1 - (38/47)(37/46) = 35%
15outs would be 1 - (32/47)(31/46) = 54.1%
OR you could approximate these results by simplying multiplying the needed outs on the flop by 4.
6 x 4 = 24
8 x 4 = 32
9 x 4 = 36
15 x 4 = 60
This "4x rule" is accurate enough for the most common draws in hold-em and in omaha. Thought you might find it useful.
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