Re: Odds of Winning and EV in a Basketball Pool Promotion
This is not your situation and is a lot more straightforward, but at ACR you get a max of one square with specific numbers associated with sepcific teams i.e., 9 celtics 7 lakers. Those must be the ending numbers of the teams scores at the end of a quarter for you to win. If you accept that any number is equally likely as any other number (this is probably not quite true due to the vagaries of basketball scoring, but it's probavbly very close) you have a pretty clear 1% chance per quarter to win the pool, so your ev is 1%x4xprize.
|