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Old 09-20-2004, 10:25 PM
ddubois ddubois is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 97
Default Re: And I blow a big stack of my own...

Seat 6: durron597 [ 6C,10H ] ($7,490 in chips)
Seat 10: dahlman ($2,440 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
durron597 posts blind ($150), dahlman posts blind ($300).
PRE-FLOP
Jonstorey10 folds, djdaddio folds, durron597 folds.
SHOWDOWN
dahlman wins $450


Playing with the EV numbers in my spreadsheet has been pretty enlightening to me, with regards to the comments from the "push any two" crowd. If you think villan will only play top15% hands here, thus folding 85% of the time, and that you are a 30:70 underdog to hands he'd play, then you gain about 260 EV pushing here, risking 2290 chips to do so. The looser he gets, the more your EV plummets, until around 66% fold frquency, where you break even. Of course, break even plays are not good, we 2+2ers want an edge. Is 10% return/risk enough of an edge?

Seat 6: durron597 [ 9H,10H ] ($2,410 in chips)
Seat 10: dahlman ($1,240 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
Jonstorey10 posts blind ($200), djdaddio posts blind ($400).
PRE-FLOP
durron597 folds, dahlman folds, Jonstorey10 calls $200, djdaddio checks.
FLOP [board cards 9C,9S,9D ]
Jonstorey10 checks, djdaddio checks.


Clearly you should play quads, they are very good hands!

It seems you are too likely to be called from UTG. If you had been on the button, I think you can push T9s. If two players are to act, who will collectively fold over half the time (.75 * .75 = .56), and you are 1:1.4 dog when called, then the push is about 200 EV. But you weren't on the button, so you missed out.

I think you just had an unavoidable bad run at the end: KQ vs AK, AJ vs 66, and 77 versus A5, and lost all three. Cards happen.
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