[cavalier]

Daliman, I love it! Finally, someone that thinks like me!

I think you are more correct in your second calculations.

I would also consider the following. As a league goes on, deeper and deeper into the league, more and more weeks/scores build up. Averages tend to move less. Players, however, can still improve. You might be "exposed" to players who improve late in the season since they will become part of those who bowl over average every game.
A semi-related story... making money using bowling balls and a little positive expectation
I am actually one of them right now, and I'm in position to profit from it already.

I started bowling in the summer. I ended a 10 week league with a 144 throwing a straight ball.

After 12 weeks in the fall league, I was a 150 straight ball roller. I took a lesson, bought a fingertip ball and began throwing the curve.

I then placed a bet with a team mate. $50 for whoever ends the season with the higher average. He was 156, I was 154 at the time. I told him I needed motivation.

2 weeks after the lessons I went nuts bowling at every bowling special there was.

Currently, my last 48 games have a 181.45 average. I'm 2 pins ahead of my opponent and averaging about 65 pins more than him weekly! The 30 pins came from being able to throw more strikes. The spares still go down with the straight ball. He was a 150 bowler who was already throwing a curve. His chance for improvement was much less than mine, and his need for action was there for me to profit from! [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img]

One more way I'm making this same guy pay for my improvement. 10 cents a pin, per game. After each game, the "damage" is rounded up to the next $1. He's paying for about 1/2 of my league fees weekly now!!!

p.s. I'm going to look into running this pool in my league..