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Old 04-09-2005, 12:40 AM
NoWorry NoWorry is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 18
Default Re: Pot Odds Question

I believe that you are taking theory too literally. If you are getting 10:1 odds, you do not actually have to play that hand 10 times to receive your net expectation. In fact, chances are that you will not get the exact return from such a limited sample, even if the bet was, in fact, a constant.

In reality, each and every time you play that hand the odds of the outcome are identical, regardless of the size of the wager.

If you are flipping a coin, you do not actually have to flip it twice to get one head. Your expectation of getting a head is 50/50 on EACH flip, regardless of the flip before or after and regardless of the amount of your wager. And your success or failure on that wager concludes with that outcome and does not carry forward to the next wager or the next outcome.

Therefore, your determination of whether to take the bet is whether you have a positive expectation on each flip, independent of all other flips, all other bets (regardless of amount) and all previous and future outcomes.

When you increase or decrease the amount of your wager on a subsequent bet, it has no impact on past or future wagers.

Hope this helps.
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