[Graham]

Thanks Bruce,

I got the same answer of 120/945 by doing the old iteration of probability of team 1 avoiding teams 2-5 (ie 5/9) multiplied by team 2 avoiding teams 3-5 (4/7) multiplied by 3 avoiding 4 & 5 (3/5) multiplied by 4 avoiding 5 (2/3).

I guess your method works better with larger no's...

btw, the event only happens every 4 years, not yearly. So, I guess the chance of that happening twice in a row is 120/945 X 120/945 = 1.6%.

Dunno if that's enough to convict UEFA but it wouldn't really surprise many if that was the case - revenue money talks you know [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

G