Thread: how then
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Old 12-02-2001, 02:01 PM
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Default okay, suppose they published...



Okay, so you're saying the market-makers have some for sale they're not showing. And this is the stock you want to hit.


Now suppose they published some of this stock behind. Would you then not want it? Would you then bid below that? Is hidden stock more valuable than published stock? Does publication of an offer taint it?


You can't argue with experience. But I think Kim was suggesting that, when a stock is so precarious that people are afraid to even publish 1,000 shares for sale - and usually it is much mroe behind if anything - that's the last time you want to stick your neck out with a limit.


They keep some back in case a really outsized buyer shows up, so they don't get picked off. But they can unwind yours in about 10 minutes, so maybe they take it. Sure.


Another thing, you said what if somebody takes my bid but the price doesn't move. Huh???? There is no "the price" - what is that even supposed to mean?


When you place a bid, and somebody hits it, all you're really saying is that you for some reason like it when your bid is published a second before their offer, not vice versa. If they publish their offer a second before you, you don't want it.


But usually they wouldn't publish it anyway, Why? Because they are lurking, with much more than 1,000, to pick someone off.


If your limit orders get filled so easily, it is also possible that you are either wrong, or you're too soon a lot of the time. If you think a stock is going to be sitting around a while, maybe you should put your money to work somewhere else, and wait for what you are predicting to start happening.


In general, when you wait to actually see it, you feel the cost of the 1/2 point you missed - like an idiot - in something you predicted. But what you don't feel is that your frequency of being right goes up way more to compensate this. And you also don't feel the joy of the the times you were wrong but didn't take it.


But now I've veered into trend trading, which I would love to post about all day, but I'll spare you.


eLROY
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