[Rushmore]

It's tough to calculate odds and adhere to them when they are based on faulty premises. Your most faulty premise is that your hand is good when you spike a 5.

You mean if you spike a 5 on the turn, and an 8 or a 9 or a 4 or a 6 comes on the river? Or when an 8 or a 9 or a 4 or a 6 comes on the turn, you call, and then you spike a 5?

Because in some of these cases, you'll likely lose, while in others, you'll likely lose half the pot.

Calculating pot odds TO THE RIVER on a gutshot draw is no way to go through life.

You'll find that your gutshot is roughly 11-1 to come on the turn. Your only question should be:

"If I spike my 5 on the turn, will I make enough to justify this call?" The answer to this question has to be both accurate and honest. It is disingenuous to "forget" to factor in the times you lose or split the pot, or the possibility of checking, calling, and then being raised on the flop. These are all real possibilities, and must be observed.

It's in most players' natures to look for a reason to call, as opposed to a reason to fold. Don't make this mistake and then justify it by some elaborate rationalization of probability based on faulty reasoning.

I made that mistake for a long time. I plan to stop someday soon.