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Old 03-10-2003, 04:36 AM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,636
Default Re: raising with TT,JJ, QQ..

Probabability of at least one over card on flop = 1 - probability of no overcards.

TT: 1 - (34/50)(33/49)(32/48) = 69.5%

JJ: 1 - (38/50)(37/49)(36/48) = 57.0%

QQ: 1 - (42/50)(41/49)(40/48) = 41.4%

This includes times you flop an overcard and also make a set or quads. If you want the probability of flopping an overcard and no set or quads (since you don't worry when you flop the nuts [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]) , we can add the probabilities of 1,2, and 3 overcards with no set or quads:

TT: (16*3*32*31 + 16*15*32*3 + 16*15*14)/(50*49*48) = 62.9%

JJ: (12*3*36*35 + 12*11*36*3 + 12*11*10)/(50*49*48) = 51.8%

QQ: (8*3*40*39 + 8*7*40*3 + 8*7*6)/(50*49*48) = 37.8%
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