Re: Monte hall problem
The solution only works (from a pure math point of view) if Monte always shows you a non-car door and is always offers you the chance to switch. These are usually implicitely assumed in the problem. But ....
Some years ago, Monte himself commented and said that there were a lot of factors that went into whether he offered the switch, so in the real world, the Monte Hall problem never met the requisite conditions.
If the conditions above aren't met, it becomes an interesting game theory problem, with certain unanswerable questions, such as what are Monte's motivations and how many cars does he want to give away in a week.
Anyway, for anyone who doubts the solution and can't follow the math, try this.
You be the contestant and get a friend to be Monte.
Have your friend take two black cards and one red card. Mix them up (so you can't see) and determine where the red card is. Your friend will offer you the choice of cards,. You 'win' if you get the red card.
Before you look, your friend turns over one black card and offers you the chance to switch to the other card that you didn't choose.
Now -- for this experiment, either always accept the choice or always decline it.
If you run the experiment enough times, you'll find one of the following:
1. If you always accept you win 2/3 of the time or
2. If you always decline you win 1/3 of the time.
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