[mikech]

Two more hits tonight. Now his chance of breaking the record is no longer just "reasonable"; it should be a pretty major disappointment if he doesn't do it. As of this writing, he has 226 hits in 597 ABs in 135 games played (137 team games; 2 DNPs). That's an average of 4.4 ABs/game, so with 25 games left (and surely Bob Melvin will play him in every one to give him the best shot at catching Gorgeous George) he would get 110 more ABs. To get 32 more hits for a total of 258, he would have to hit just .291 (his career MLB avg is .339). Of course, there will be the attendant pressure and media attention as he nears the record, which may affect his performance; opposing teams may pitch around him more (although that's unlikely--they're only singles after all); he has also had a history of late-season dropoffs since coming to the majors (some have speculated that's due to his being accustomed to the shorter Japan league seasons). Overall though, I think it's a +EV bet at this point that he'll break the record.