Thread: how then
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Old 12-02-2001, 02:20 PM
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Default an insidious corollary



My last post dealt with how, seeing as you like to publish - and you have none behind - chances are the guy who doesn't publish is bigger than you, or something. He is banking on maintaining the illusion that "the price" hasn't moved.


But there is a much more dangerous reason why someone might make more money and get filled more often using limit orders: IF THAT PERSON REFUSES TO PAY UP WHEN HE IS RIGHT!


If Stock X is at 10, and I predict it go to to 20, but for some reason it goes to 12 before I can get filled, I should be happier to pay 12 than 10, because it seems more likely I am right.


But some people deprive themselves of any price above "the price" - the "fair" one where the stock was trading when they first made their prediction and started trying to buy.


What this refusal accomplishes is to make a person less likely to buy when he is right, and more likely to buy when he is wrong. One incorrect way to overcome it is to always start trying to buy early. That way, you get in with less weighting to when you are wrong versus right, and you don't suffer the pain of paying up.


Rather than trying to buy at a stage when whether you get filled or not is not corrolated to subsequent performance - and may be inversely correlated - you should...


you get the idea...


larry



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