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Old 08-03-2004, 12:09 PM
adanthar adanthar is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 27
Default Re: I folded AA. Was this the correct move?

Push. The calculation is very simple and straight out of TPFAP.

In the Party $10 prize structure, folding guarantees you $30 (call it $32.5, just on the off chance you can come back.)

Pushing against their two hands gives you a ~25% chance at busting with $20; the 75% of the time that you win, you'll have 3K chips against the other guy's 5K and a 35% chance to win $50/65% chance to win $30 (actually, 37.5%/62.5%, but we'll round it down). Two thirds of 75% is 50%, so the total breakdown if you call is:
25%- win $50 ($12.5)
50%- win $30 ($15)
25%- win $20 ($5)

So, the EV of calling and folding are identical, *if* you feel that you are of equal skill level to your opponent and you will finish basically according to your chip count.

But your opponents suck, and you will probably finish higher than your chip sizes warrant. Therefore, push.
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