[dabluebery]

**Also posted in Probablity, for you pot odds junkies**

A situation arose in a NL holdem tournament that has me asking about how to bet with the lead to disrupt people drawing.....

With even stacks (2000), 9 handed, Jason raises to t-200 with AKo and the blinds at 25-50. Chris, on the button calls, and so does the small blind.

The flop was AJ8, two diamonds. Jason bets t200. Button calls, small blind folds. Turn is a 4, not a diamond. Jason bets another 200, button calls. The turn is a 6, and not a diamond. Jason checks his top pair top kicker, button bets 400, Jason calls.

Button turns over 56 of diamonds, and was drawing to a flush, but backed into a straight. Jason knows he underbet the pot twice, giving the button odds to call. But we're not sure of how much is *optimal* to bet here.

You can calculate the break even point where the pot odds give you an EV of zero on the drawing players call. But how much MORE than that does Jason have to bet, to force the drawing player to fold? (I realize that betting more than that break-even point is +EV for Jason, because then the caller will be taking the worst of it from a pot odds position.)

Theory of poker doesn't talk much about an *optimal* betting strategy when betting from the lead. Can anyone fill us in?

Rob