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Old 07-26-2004, 04:31 AM
BugsBunny BugsBunny is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 537
Default Re: What\'s the probability that the flop missed everyone?

I'm tired so I probably messed up somewhere but I make it ~36%.

This assumes that they play any 2 cards.
There are 47 unknown cards.

C(47,2) = 1081 (Possible hands)
C(38,2) = 703 (Possible hands that miss the flop (but may include a pp))

K, 7, and 3 are accounted for. 22 is in your hand. That leaves 9 other possible pocket pairs. 6 ways each = 54 total. Add 1 for the remaining 22 combo = 55 total pocket pair combos.

703-55 = 648 hands that miss the flop and aren't a pocket pair.

648/1081 = 0.5994449584 (chances that 1 opponent misses and has no pp)

0.5994449584^2 = 0.3593342581 (chances that both opponents miss and have no pp)

In reality opponents rarely play any 2 so the chances are probably better that they missed.
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