Re: What\'s the probability that the flop missed everyone?
Interesting question, I'll take a shot:
I'll find the probability that 2 hands do not have pairs given a flop that is not paired. I'll ignore the extra info you get from knowing your hand is 22.
prob 1st card of 1st hand doesn't pair flop: 40/49
prob 2nd card doesn't pair flop or 1st card: 36/48
prob 1st card of 2nd hand doesn't pair flop or either card of 1st hand: 32/47
given this, prob 2nd card doesn't pair first or flop: 34/36
prob 1st card doesn't pair flop but pairs one of the cards of 1st hand: 6/47
given this, prob 2nd card...: 35/46
((40/49)*(36/48)) * ((32/47)*(34/46) + (6/47)*(35/46))
= 36.76%
where did I screw up? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
EDIT: I think the probability that they don't have a pair will be slightly less given that you have a pocket pair
|