Re: 33 Standard?
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Even against the LAGgy preflop raiser and nobody else, your equity is just 35%, provided that the hand will go to showdown.
Granted, your actual chance of winning the hand is a bit higher than that, since you will sometimes induce an incorrect fold.
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But there is close to 5BB's already in the pot. My check raise gives me roughly 5:1 immediate odds. Say I get HU with the button, then it's probably likely the button ends up all in... When he calls my flop c/r, he has $28 left.
In essence, I'm wagering $38 to win a $118 profit or so. That seems like a good bet.
Things only change when I get cold called.
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Sure, it's +EV if there's no chance that the other players will call (or 3-bet). I just think the chance that you'll get cold called is pretty high, especially as a J is going to play pretty often in these games. If there were only one limper, or the flop were like 997, I would like the play a lot better.
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