Re: Implied odds! 77 with A at the tabel?
Siigo,
Every miracle shot you take has implied odds. But for the miracle shot to make sense, it has to be implied that the money you will earn when you hit will make up for all of the times that the miracle misses.
In your example, I think we can agree that the chances of your winning unimproved with your 77 are close to zero. In addition, since you have no draw of any kind, we can also agree that you will need to hit a 7 to win. Let's also assume that you will always fold on the turn without spiking, since you will never have the odds to see the river.
The odds of your spiking a 7 on the turn is 23:1. The pot is laying you 10:1. To make the math easy, let's assume you call this bet the next twenty-three times you are in this situation, and as probability predicts, you spike your set one time. That means that you've spent 23 SBs to win 10 SBs. This further means that you need to earn 7BB's on the final two streets in order to make this bet worthwhile. Unless you are playing with maniacs, that is a lot of money to have to earn, since you can't be assured that the player(s) with an A will go wild when you raise, or that the others will even still be putting money in on the expensive streets.
In conclusion...don't chase with obviously beaten underpairs when you miss the flop and you're only getting 10:1 to see the turn.
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