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Old 06-09-2004, 01:30 AM
gergery gergery is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: SF Bay Area (eastbay)
Posts: 719
Default Re: Qc Jc in big blind

I think the call is ok if you want to mix it up, but you can make a good argument for folding. Late position in unraised pot doesn't have to have aK, could have AT or 88 a lot of time.

Flop hit you well, but with danger. The plus is any club gives you a flush, any Q gives trips, any T is straight for 14 outs for likely the best hand. You would be not far behind even AK or AA here, maybe 40-45% chance to win. Odds that someone has Ax or Kx are slim given you have two clubs and they wouldn't raise with weaker versions of that, like K5. I'd worry most you were up against a JTs, KK, AK, AQ, KQ, 99, or someone with part of a draw like he had.

You must bet on the flop. If you are playing QJs and not going to continue with this hand, then there is no way you should play it to begin with. You have 2nd pair, flush draw, and gutshot -- just how much better does the flop have to be to continue?

Since he bet 150 into a 240 pot, I would think a little bit of weakness (maybe a piece of the flop like A9 or perhaps a TT), and raise him back to maybe 400. Anyone who caught alot of this is also worried about straights and flushes and would bet harder. Even the nuts here (JT) won't want to let a club draw in cheap. If he reraises you then it's decision time -- you are beat but have maybe ~40% chance to win the pot. Or, You could just call since you're getting 2.6:1 on your money (150 for 400) and your odds of improving are 2:1 (but not because you want to slowplay this - thats suicide). But calling is weak poker.

But once you call and get to the turn, you gotta fold to a big raise. A ten is just too likely.

--Greg
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