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Old 09-19-2001, 07:58 PM
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Default Re: Peaceful turn hand.



Pre-flop: Sredni's raise is correct. The cold call from Tom Sawyer is indeed inhospitable and worrisome.


On the flop: Sredni's raise is correct. Tom Sawyer's overcall does not strike me as J-J; J-J would likely have reraised either pre-flop or, if not then, on the flop, given the coordinated texture of the board. Two overcards with perhaps the Ah is a more likely hand (as confirmed by the fact that he folded for two more bets, he said with the advantage of knowing the outcome before it happened).


I would not have 4-bet. Not knowing whether Tom Sawyer would call 2 more bets or not, I would have called Mr. Crowley's reraise and planned to re-raise on the turn if an hospitable card came. In a big pot, I try to make sure they don't draw out on my on the river; they'll usually get to the turn, but you can keep them from getting to the river by making it two big bets on the turn.


I don't think Tom Sawyer had K-Q or K-Qs. A-K or A-Q seem more likely. It is not impossible that one of the other two remaining players has K-Q.


When the pot gets big, my goal is to keep them from drawing out on me. There is very little you can do from keeping them from getting to the turn (although you were successful in keeping Tom Sawyer from getting there). So once Mr. Crowley 3-bet the flop, I would have only called, and then, if a benign or helpful card came on the turn, raised the turn.


Sometimes we overthink. When the board pairs and they all check on the turn, it might mean a trap, but more often it means they didn't like that card. I would have bet the turn since you now have the nut flush draw. It's not impossible that both opponents were on draws. It's also not impossible that Fortunato was sure you'd bet, since you have raised thus far at every opportunity.


I think Fortunato has K-Q. I don't know what Mr.Crowley has. J-4s, as Hillbilly suggested, makes the most sense. A-J also makes sense.


I probably would have, in the heat of the battle, raised on the river. I don't think anyone has a full house.


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