Florida seems to me much more contested. Lastest poll shows Kerry at 45%, Bush at 44%, Nader at 4%. Probably Ralph won't make the ballot, which should give Kerry a boost. Hard not to see this one as a battleground, IMO.
Pennslyvania looks pretty close by recent polls. But the Democratic Party is strong there right now. John Street won the mayoral in Philly last fall very easily and the party machine really kicked into gear. Ed Rendell is a popular Democratic governor with national aspirations, and I think he'll put a lot of effor into this one. I only see Bush winning if its a national landslide his way.
I agree that Bush is the big fav in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Nevada and that Kerry has the advantage in Oregon. Don't know about Maine, which I think might have gone Bush's way against Gore but I'm not sure.
Kerry looks pretty strong in Michigan by recent polls.
This is a
good site for polls in a variety of states.