The painful results
I cold-called the raise on 7th. The fourth player folded. Fishy guy now 3-bet. Raiser called. At this point, I felt that overcalling was like setting fire to a new twenty-dollar bill, but I did it anyways.
Fishy's hand: (3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img](K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
Other guy's hand: (6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img](A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])
My hand: (9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img](7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]).
Here's what twodimes says about 4th street:
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 9c 9s 9h kh - 3c ac 4c 5d - 6c 3s 4d ad / 7c 6s 8c 3d
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
9s 9c Kh 9h 28772 383397 116603 0 0 0 0 0.412
Ac 4c 3c 5d 78928 91478 408044 478 236487 103197 18143 0.340
3s 6c Ad 4d 15723 24647 474875 478 213727 144187 18143 0.248
5th:
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 9c 9s 9h kh as - 3c ac 4c 5d qc - 6c 3s 4d ad 5c / 7c 6s 8c 3d 3h
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 9s 9c Kh 9h 0 290222 209778 0 0 0 0 0.290
Ac Qc 4c 3c 5d 53493 114413 384472 1115 96067 149522 63028 0.243
3s 6c 5c Ad 4d 72536 94250 404635 1115 340905 96067 63028 0.467
6th:
pokenum -7s8 9c 9s 9h kh as qh - 3c ac 4c 5d qc 2d - 6c 3s 4d ad 5c kd / 7c 6s 8c 3d 3h td
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 19656 enumerated outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 9s 9c Kh Qh 9h 0 4212 15444 0 0 0 0 0.107
Ac Qc 4c 3c 5d 2d 12411 12634 6902 120 17550 0 2106 0.796
3s 6c 5c Ad Kd 4d 0 2690 16846 120 0 17550 2106 0.097
The third guy played it sneaky. He had a made low on 5th but just let Fishy and I get into a raising war. This was probably a good play, as I would not have kept raising had I put him on a made low. I actually put him on a diamond draw, which is why I slowed down on 6th. I didn't put Fishy on the wheel, of course, not with the two treys in the fourth guy's hand.
So capping it on 4th was clearly correct. The other streets are debatable.
Funny how the guy with the worst hand EV-wise can catch perfect and scoop. Goes to show that it's always best to have a hand with low potential in this game.
Don't worry, it wasn't long before Fishy redistributed his winnings to the rest of the table.
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