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Old 12-24-2005, 12:29 PM
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Default Re: Open pushing in later stages

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Okay. Somewhat late in a large multitable tournament, say a $5. I have 12,500 in chips with the average at 11,000. There are 240 people left and they are paying 20% of the field or 340 people. Blinds are 300/600 but going up in 2 minutes (so in this case you can say they are 400/800 by the end of two hands). My M right now is 12500/600=20.8, which is a high amount. I have AKo right in the cutoff. Even though at your current rate you have an M of 20, with the blinds going to 400/800 and you putting in at least 1200 in the next four hands isn't this a case of a push?

If you raise to 1800 and then make a continuation bet of 2400 on a flop of Q 4 2 and get pushed all in you just cost yourself 4200 chips plus the minimum of 1200 within a few hands. That's 5400 chips out of the 12500.

Isn't it just smart to push or "overbet" your M of 20 because of varying factors like blinds moving up, your position on the table (close to the escalating blinds) and a hand that is the top drawing hand?

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I personally think this is very bad, Gators. AK is a Sklansky group 1 hand and you're looking to drive away potential players with chips to take? You're way too deep at the point you described to make this move and hands likely to call this big of a bet will either be a race or have you dominated. AQ *might* call, but you're more likely to be called by someone with a mid PP and end up racing for all of your chips where you could have easily taken it down on any flop with overcards to his PP and a c-bet. You have great cards and position in the situation you presented, make use of them properly to win chips and not just steal the blinds. I think the remaining players here fold too often and when they do actually call you it's with hands that are ahead or splitting - so you're either winning a very small pot or losing a huge one. It should be the other way around.

I used to think I want to race with AK every time. I've learned that is not always the case.
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