[belloc]

I wasn't going to post this hand that I played last night (live 4/8), but Will's "The Cost of Mistakes in Poker" post made me think harder about it.

It's nine handed, I'm in Seat 1 (MP1), opponents are:

Seat 2 (MP2): Very loose-typical 20something

Seat 7 (BB): Very loose-passive middle aged guy

Seat 8 (UTG): Loose-typical 20something

Seat 9 (UTG+1): Very Loose Very Aggressive 20something [he's a NL player primarily and donks around in the 4/8 to blow off steam. good at reading hands, but doesn't understand limit poker].


Preflop: UTG raises, UTG+1 3-bets, I cap with AA, MP2 cold calls 4,BB cold calls 3 more, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls. (Five to the flop for 20.5 SB)

Flop: T8Xr (X is a baby, maybe like a 4 or 5)

Checked to UTG+1 who bets, I raise, MP2 cold calls, BB cold calls, UTG cold calls, UTG+1 calls. (Five to the turn for 14.25 BB)

Turn: Q

UTG+1 donks, I raise, MP2 3-bets, everybody cold calls, I am getting 28:1 to close the betting. I ??

How can my hand be good? It probably isn't. But remember, these aren't just Party .5/1 donkeys. It's way beyond that; it's more like play money tables than anything. These are players (all four opponents!) who I've spent lots of time (this is my regular club) watching play any two cards from any position for any number of bets. But even so, turn aggression usually means something even in a game like this.

I could be drawing dead vs. a J9, drawing thin vs. a set, drawing to 8 outs vs. two pair, and there's some miniscule chance I'm even ahead against this bunch.

How sure do I have to be to fold here?