Re: Calculating the Probability of Sustained Loss
By the central limit theorem, the sum of your hourly results over n hours ~ N(n*1.5, n*(12.7^2). So if n = 106, your results are ~ N(159, 131^2). Thus P(down 120 BB or more after 106 hours) = N((-120-159)/131) = N(-2.12) = 1.7%.
If you earn 1BB, it's N((-120-106)/131) = N(-1.72) = 4.2%. Someone smart correct me if I'm wrong.
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