[sthief09]

i think the turn is too cute. i guess you feel like no one has anything and by betting you will get 2 folds. you certainly cant count on the button to bet. hes not that aggressive and he is super loose which means its likely he calls the flop with nothing.

the river i think is a fold. button's play is exactly in line with a flopped boat. if the pot were bigger id call since you have a strong board kicker. as it stands here, the pot isnt so big, you are hoping to chop, and you have 2 semi-sane players going to war.

so youre getting 10-2 or 12-3. you need to have each of them beat 40-50% of the time. i think the button is 50/50 having a flopped boat or AK. do you beat the SB 1/3 of the time? well i think you chop with him pretty often. maybe half the time you lose, half the time you chop. then you win .5*(.5*.5) = 1/8, so youd need 9-1 if thats right