Re: Better than 1 time in 3
I think Howling may be right about how someone came up with this number, but the logic is not good.
First of all, it only covers heads up, last to act. Second, it does not factor in three important probabilities: (a) you bet and he folds, (b) you bet and he calls and (c) you bet, he raises and you fold. All three of these add to your expected value and make you more willing to bet.
Even this only works with a fixed limit structure. If it is pot limit or no limit, the raise could be more or less than the original bet.
In most cases, you will bet heads up on the river if you think you have better than a 50% chance of winning if you get called or raised. You may also bet as a bluff, with very small chance of winning. There are many other factors that influence this decision, but your unconditional chance of winning the pot is not a major one and 1 chance in 3 or 2 in 3 is no magic number.
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