[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
the range will narrow as we go through the steps

1)Consider what hands would defend preflop?

not helpful as many players defend any 2.

2) consider what hands play the flop this way

a K probably would, a FD would, an A likely would, and 8 would

3)consider (from 2) which hands play the turn this way

a K probably wouldn't, but might a small percentage of the time
An Ace probably would, an 8 probably would, a flush draw would

based on experience, and how he played the hand, at the river I think he has:

an A 30% of the time
a K 5% of the time
an 8 40% of the time
A flush 25% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, here's the math, since nobody bothered to do it:

First, I am changing probability of an A from 30 to 40, and an 8 (or mid pp) from 40 to 30. Also, I will assume he always c/r's a K or flush, never a worse hand, and that we fold the the c/r.

so, in order for this to be profitable, he must call more often than he check/raises. This is because on a c/r we lose 1 bet, and on a call we win one bet.

We know he will call every time with an A, and say 1/3 of the time with an 8/pp.

So he calls 55% of the time and c/r's 30% of the time, so when we bet we win an average of .25BB's.

If you can't fold to the c/r, it would be best to fold.