[AlexHoops]

"Still, folding is best because your odds of being good at the end of the hand are less than the effective odds you are being offered to see a showdown."

Neglect the money in the pot for a second. There are only two aces left in the deck, and the villain needs a better ace to beat you. The bet in this position could mean anything from a weak club draw, a weak flush, a pair other than aces (betting position on a scary board), a better ace or a worse ace. Obviously we are in trouble if he has the weak flush or a better ace, but does he have the better ace or flush more than 50% of the time? If not, arn't we getting 1:1 for each bet we put in (assuming the checkraise will knock out the other two, and if not they are probably on the flush draw drawing incorrectly, atleast on the flop)?

This is the way I have always thought of this play, but as I write it down I think I might see the error in this way of thinking. Because of our position when we are ahead we dont get called on the river? Now I've confused myself even more because of the money in PF should compensate for this.

How does your play change if there is 2 to a flush out given the same action?