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Old 11-17-2005, 04:07 AM
cpk cpk is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 137
Default Re: A few hands from a losing player

Hand #1, you went a little nuts on the turn. He has a low AF--he probably has a flush, you should call the turn and hope to suck out. You can almost fold the river--it's borderline. With a higher AF I'd see a clear call here, but I think this player would be afraid to raise without the flush.

Hand #2, Think about what hands he can have. If he reraises with suited broadway, AK, AQ, KQ, AA-77 that is 8% of remaining hands and I think that is a bit too generous. Of the 108 hands he might have, you are ahead when he has exactly JTs, or under 3% of the time. Knowing this, why are you betting?

Narrowing his holdings like this means that your ace and jack outs are discounted rather sharply. I'd say about 2 outs for the lot. The four tens are sure outs, so you have about 6 outs. That means you need about 6.67:1. You get about 6.25:1 implied on the turn (assuming I can count) so you know you can peel one off but not two.

This kind of analysis is hard to do at the table, but I find if you work it out in advance for common situations you gain a lot of insight about what to do. Go through your hand histories looking for hands that trouble you and reconstruct your opponent's possible holdings based upon percentages--it'll be eyeopening.
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