[btspider]

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Are the odds of him paying off with AA higher than those of him c/ring with KK?

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this seems to sum it up. he'll payoff with AA (6 ways) 100% of the time, so he'd need to check-raise KK (3 ways) 100% of the time for us to break even with a bet-call line. if he c/r's KK less than 100%, betting the river makes $$.

bet-folding aside.. but you'd have to be quite confident he isn't fps'ing it up to lay this one down to a c/r.

I don't think AA 3-bets the turn (which would make us more confident in KK over AA here). i must be missing something.