Re: Quick thoughts, more later
You have a lot in here I want to respond to, but so many quotes are making this cluttered. I'm going to try to get rid of some of them, but nothing critical (I hope!).
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This sounds like you think this but don't know for sure because you haven't played enough hands with UTG. And I think you need to have played thousands online against him to make this laydown.
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You are right, I don't know for sure. But as I've stated throughout, I think he naked-bluffs here less than 1 outta 20 times (I think it's more like 1 outta 50). He'd need to bluff 1 outta ten times for my call to be justified.
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You also said above, "Nobody can put UTG on a hand."
Sure we can.
Monster: set or straight that didn't want to lose anybody on the turn or was going to CR.
Two pair: A9 specifically, maybe A6 or A2 that got scared on the turn.
Hand you beat: Ahxh or a complete whiff
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AhXh is 'impossible' because HJ and button have aces. Of those you list, I beat only "complete whiff", and as I've said, I think he bets that here less than 1 outta 20 times.
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You also wrote above
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It's pretty clear that HJ and Button both have big aces, and there's probably about 25% chance I'm chopping at best with button.
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What do you mean at best? Do you mean at worst?
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I'm not sure what I meant. Just pretend I didn't write "at best".
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Because the button and hijack have you beat about 1% of the time here.
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I think it's less than that. I think maybe 0.1% of the time.
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Now I'm sure UTG had you beat this time but it seems to go back to basics. I'm not making big folds in big pots on the river without 98-99% certainty of my read.
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Then you are losing money. In this spot, with this pot size, you only need 90% certainty.
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If you were 99% certain then I think you need to state that - maybe you did and I didn't see it though. If you were 99% certain of your read then it was a good play win or lose.
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Like I've said, it's actually 90%, not 99%, and I have stated it. I'm somewhere in the 95%-98% region.
Josh
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