Re: When to fold AK on the bubble?
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Anyhow, you can see here that shorty gains 11.3% of the equity prize pool if he wins, and loses only 13.1% if he doesn’t. Therefore he’s getting 1.16:1 on his money, or, in reality, only needs to win this hand 46% of the time.
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Wait, I'm confused. Doesn't this mean shorty is getting 1:1.16 on his money, meaning he should be calling with hands that are 54% or better against any two?
Another thing...
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Again, assume the 200/400 blinds.
UTG 5000 (39.3%) (34.1%) (42.1%)
Button 800 (13.1%) (24.4%) (0%)
SB 1500 (19.9%) (16.4%) (26.6%)
BB 2700 (27.7%) (25.1%) (31.3%)
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I get something a little different...
blinds 200/400
UTG t5000 (37.45%) (34.05%) (42.07%)
Button t800 (12.25%) (24.45%) (0%)
SB t1500 (21.12%) (16.38%) (26.60%)
BB t2700 (29.19%) (25.12%) (31.33%)
So I guess I see him calling with the top 50%.
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