Re: Pushing too hard or just right?
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I'd cap the river.
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What do you put him on? After he 3-bets the river after capping preflop we can narrow him down to QQ or 99, but 99 might not cap preflop, might not 3 bet river, so QQ seems much more likely. Even if he had QQ or 99 with equal probability 50% each then capping the river would be neutral EV.
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opponenet is 40/20/1.5
he doesn't think like you.
Barron
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