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Old 10-23-2003, 10:14 AM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,636
Default Re: Odds question...another method?

How do you adjust if you have to call two bets?

Even on the flop, if you can make your hand in one card, you should still be looking at the odds with 1 card to come. If you don't have the pot odds to see 1 card for 1 small bet, then you won't have the odds to see 2 cards for 3 small bets (since the turn bet is double). This is true as long as we are just talking pot odds and not including other bets that you will collect if you make your hand. If you have a draw that requires hitting two cards, such as a backdoor flush draw, then you usually just add 1 out for the backdoor draw and still look at the pot odds for 1 card to come.

Lots of people have various tricks for calculating pot odds, and there is much confusion about how to handle 2 cards to come. Personally, I'd rather memorize a few numbers than do arithmetic during a hand, especially considering all the other stuff you need to think about, pot odds being the least important. They are really just a starting point anyway. The pot odd numbers never change, so there is no sense in calculating the same ones over and over again hundreds of thousands of times for the rest of your life. All I do is remember how big the pot needs to be for me to see the next card when I have from 4 to 12 outs:

outs,pot
<font color="blue">4,11</font>
5,9
<font color="red">6,7
7,6</font>
8,5
9,5
10,4
<font color="blue">11,4</font>
12,3

These numbers are exactly the same for both the flop and the turn since 47 vs. 46 cards remaining doesn't make a difference. Remember, the formula is 47/outs - 1 = pot or 46/outs - 1 = pot, and you round up to the next whole number.

You may want to add a few more numbers, but if you have less than 4 outs you generally aren't going to play unless the pot is huge, and if you have more than 12 outs you generally will play unless you know you're drawing dead, so you will know what to do without knowing the exact numbers. Of course if you are contemplating calling 1 or more raises, the procedure is the same except that you divide the pot by the number of bets you need to call.

Be careful though, because except for 5,9, and 11 outs, all of these pot values are only marginally correct, that is, they don't give you any overlay. You will be making adjustments for them anyway based on many other factors such as the possibility of making your hand and still losing, implied odds, the possibility of a raise behind you, etc. You want to be conservative and leave yourself some overlay, so all other things being equal, you may want to add 1 to most of these numbers, or simply realize that they are very close. Leaving an overlay will reduce your fluctuations without costing you much EV, and if your judgment is less than perfect, it will save you a lot of EV.

Notice that these numbers are easy to memorize because some of them occur in pairs as I've indicated by the colors above. There are really only 6 pairings you have to memorize.

People worry about the separate set of probabilities for 2 cards to come, but those really aren't used very often unless you are taking effective odds or implied odds into account. They aren't used for pot odds. For example, it's useful to know that it's 2-1 to make a flush or straight draw in 2 cards so that if you are last to act on the flop with more than 3 callers, you should raise since you will be putting in 1 bet for 3 of your opponent's bets.
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