[sthief09]

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For those that think this is an easy turn check, why?
I think it's an easy bet considering how low the c/r % is on this turn. We might be behind to a higher jack or big pair, but that's about it. Can't give the BB credit for a set with his isolation c/r on the flop, and also hard to figure him for a queen unless it's QJ. We have no worries about that whole "can't bet the turn because calling a c/r sucks when we have outs" philosophy here. The chances of getting c/red are low and the chances that we may be ahead of A7s, TT, 99, 88 aren't low. We also don't want to give out free cards when that's the case.

Fire away.

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I argued this with Josh a lot last night already but when we're ahead here, opponent either has 3 outs (jack lower kicker...slim), a lower PP (2 outs), or mid pair + kicker (5 outs) and I guess it depends on what your estimation is that J9 is good on the turn, but giving a free card doesn't hurt you a ton if your estimation that your hand is good isn't that high.

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I'm 99% sure that betting the turn is best, and you know how scared of disagreeing with you I am

you're going to call the river. you aren't getting checkraised that often. you gain an extra bet when you hit one of your 12 outs (two pair of flush), which is pretty frequent compared to the times you get checkraised. there is no guarantee he will bet the river if you check. if there was checking would make sense since you make the 2 bets on the river.

it's 10/20, not 100/200. the typical player is not that tricky